Español
August 17th, 2026
1. Introduction
The number of families reported as affected by extreme weather events in Bolivia, such as droughts, frosts, floods, and wildfires, increased sixfold between 2011-2013 and 2021-2023 (see Figure 1). This sharp rise in climate-related impacts has occurred alongside two major trends: A rapid increase in average global temperatures and unprecedented levels of forest loss in Bolivia. Both trends are expected to intensify climate hazards by altering rainfall patterns, increasing temperatures, and reducing the capacity of ecosystems to regulate water flows and local climates.
Figure 1: Number of families severely or moderately harmed by different types of climate disasters in Bolivia, 2002-2023.
Source: Authors’ elaboration based on data provided by the Vice Ministry of Civil Defense (VIDECI).
2. Data collection
The institution responsible for monitoring and responding to disasters in Bolivia is the Vice Ministry of Civil Defense (VIDECI). Although its origins can be traced back to the Civil Defense System established in 1983, the current institutional framework was formalized through a series of reforms culminating in Supreme Decree No. 29894 of 2009.
VIDECI collects information through the Integrated Information and Alert System for Disaster Risk Management (SINAGER-SAT), which was institutionalized under the Risk Management Act (Law No. 602 of 2014). The system builds on earlier disaster management frameworks, particularly the National System for Risk Reduction and Disaster and Emergency Response (SISRADE), established in 2000.
When an extreme weather event occurs, local authorities complete a standardized Damage Assessment and Needs Analysis (EDAN) form. These reports record the number of affected and displaced families, damage to housing and infrastructure, disruptions to basic services, and other information needed to assess impacts and coordinate emergency response efforts. The system covers a wide range of hazards, including droughts, frosts, floods, fires, hailstorms, landslides, and severe storms.
For this analysis, we use annual EDAN data compiled by VIDECI for the periods 2011-2013 and 2021–2023. The data provide a consistent national record of weather-related disasters and their impacts, allowing us to examine trends in the frequency and severity of climate-related events across Bolivia.
3. Indicator construction
Target 1 of SDG 13 is to “Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related risks and natural disasters in all countries.” A reasonable indicator to monitor that target is the “percentage of households affected or damaged by extreme weather events.”
The registration of victims of hazards by VIDECI follows two definitions according to Supreme Decree No. 2342:
Damaged (Damnificados in Spanish): People, families, or population groups that are harmed by the occurrence of an adverse event that causes direct damage and losses to their homes and livelihoods, or who have been left in a condition of uninhabitability and impossibility of recovery, due to the degree of destruction as a result of the disaster and/or emergency.
Affected: Individuals, families, or population groups that are harmed by the occurrence of an adverse event that causes indirect damage and losses, whether in their physical and/or mental health, property, livelihoods, development opportunities, among others; and that demand the attention of state and local government entities through disaster and/or emergency response processes.
The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) definition establishes Affected as:
“People who are affected, either directly or indirectly, by a hazardous event. Directly affected are those who have suffered injury, illness or other health effects; who were evacuated, displaced, relocated or have suffered direct damage to their livelihoods, economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets. Indirectly affected are people who have suffered consequences, other than or in addition to direct effects, over time, due to disruption or changes in economy, critical infrastructure, basic services, commerce or work, or social, health and psychological consequences.
Note: People can be affected directly or indirectly. Affected people may experience short-term or long-term consequences to their lives, livelihoods or health and to their economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets. In addition, people who are missing or dead may be considered as directly affected.” (UNDRR, 2017)
Based on this definition, both the “damaged” and “affected” families reported by VIDECI fall within the broader definition of affected people established by the UNDRR. Therefore, to estimate disaster intensity, both categories were combined and treated as the total number of people affected by these events. Hereafter, the term affected families refers to the combined total of what VIDECI classifies as damaged and affected families.
4. Evaluation of data quality
Since the VIDECI data relies on self-reported damage reports from each municipality in Bolivia, there is an inherent risk of bias. Also, the completeness of reporting and registration of damages could have changed over time as new procedures and systems were implemented.
It is therefore necessary to assess whether the data reported in Figure 1 reflects actual impacts of extreme weather events or rather changes in reporting systems.
Several pronounced historical peaks suggest that the observed increase is driven primarily by the intensification of extreme events rather than by improvements in data collection. Notable examples include the severe drought of 2016, described as the strongest in 25 years in Bolivia (Jemio, 2016), and the record-breaking wildfires of 2024 (Dyhr, 2025). Also, the 2014 peak of floods recorded in the lowlands is consistent, as 2014 Bolivia experienced the “worst floods in 60 years” (Jones, 2014).
Extreme droughts in 2022-2023?
The number of families affected by drought reported by VIDECI is exceptionally high in 2022 and 2023 (see Figure 1). To assess whether this is a real phenomenon or an artifact of changes in reporting systems, we consulted the Drought Index of the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology (SENAMHI), which confirms historically high records of moderate, severe, and extreme drought in 2022 and remaining high in 2023 (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. SENAMHI’s drought monitor, 2007 – 2025
Source: SENAMHI’s drought monitor (https://senamhi.gob.bo/index.php/servicios/sequias).
In 2024, the situation worsened, as by the end of the year, over 490 thousand families from over 4 thousand communities were directly affected by droughts. Furthermore, 155 municipalities declared a municipal disaster, as the damages surpassed their response capacities (El Día, 2024). Together with the upward trend in fire activity since 2019 and other evidence of increasing climate-related hazards, these patterns support the consistency of the observed rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme events.
Municipalities with more than 100% of the population affected?
In some municipalities, the sum of affected families across all disaster categories exceeds the total number of households, indicating that some families may have been affected by multiple extreme weather events within the same year. This overlap is relevant for measuring intensity, as repeated impacts reflect a greater burden from extreme weather events. Therefore, all affected families reported across disaster types were aggregated to capture the overall intensity of weather-related disasters.
Contemporary news reports indicate that some municipalities in Beni experienced severe and prolonged flooding during the 2021 rainy season. By mid-February, many sectors were under red alert because of the overflow of the Ibare, Mamoré, Yacuma, and Machupo rivers, and by late February, it had formally declared an emergency (ANF, 2021; El Deber, 2021; CIPCA Beni, 2021; Opinión, 2021). Flood impacts persisted for several months, with humanitarian assistance still being delivered in June (Save the Children, 2021).
Some municipalities, like Lagunillas in the Santa Cruz department, have experienced several cumulative events over long periods of time. This municipality in particular suffered a long-lasting drought in the year 2022 affecting the region for several months, with reports ranging from April 2022 (El Diario, 2022) stating that the drought had affected 95% of the corn crops in the area, all the way to November 2022, when Lagunillas, alongside 5 other municipalities from the department declared municipal disaster due to drought (Economy, 2022).
In 2022, the La Niña phenomenon delayed the rainy season by more than two months, depleting water reservoirs and devastating entire crop seasons in five regions of the country (ANF, 2022). Following these intense droughts, the delayed rainy season arrived strongly in 2023, causing further problems in other regions. Floods and droughts affected 13,000 families in more than 13 municipalities in Santa Cruz and La Paz, while frosts affected more than 486,000 families across seven regions of Bolivia (Sierra, 2023).
5. Results
Using the data on total affected families, a time series of disaster impact intensity was constructed. To facilitate comparison between census years, representative values were calculated for two reference periods. For 2012, the indicator was estimated as the average annual percentage of affected families during 2011–2013, while for 2024, the average for the period 2021–2023 was used, as that is the most recent data available.
To analyze results by municipality, the results were classified according to four thresholds detailed in the following table:
Table 1. Thresholds established for the percentages of families affected and impacted by weather events
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Based on these thresholds, the results point to an alarming reality. In 2012, only 27 municipalities fell into the “Huge challenges remain” category, whereas in 2024, that number rose to 156. The following chart and map illustrate this drastic change and its distribution:
Figure 3. Number of municipalities and GAIOCs by indicator thresholds
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Figure 4. Distribution of the indicator in Bolivia at the municipal level
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
These results highlight the urgent need to scale up climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, as well as to prioritize actions in municipalities with the biggest challenges.
It is also worth noting that 75 of the 206 municipalities with a percentage of families affected by weather events of less than 5% in 2012 went directly to having a percentage greater than 30% in 2024, highlighting the rapid increase in the number of families affected by these events.
The indicator is intended to serve as a useful tool for efficiently targeting climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts based on the needs and degree of urgency identified in each municipality.
- See https://www.climate4you.com/ for regularly updated average global temperature data from different sources.
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See https://globalnaturewatch.org/dashboards/country/BOL/ for annual data on forest loss in Bolivia.
References
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